Data Preprocessing

library(ggplot2)
library (readr)
library(tidyverse)
library(dplyr)
library(covidcast)
library(lubridate)
library(ggpubr)
library(reshape2)
library(tidyr)
library(viridis)
library(gridExtra)
library(zoo)
library(cowplot)
library(gplots)
library(car)

source("code/painter.r")
source("code/load_all_data.r")
source("code/shifter.r")
STARTDATE <- "2020-02-20"
ENDDATE <- lubridate::today()
GEO_TYPE = "state" # state-level
GEO_VALUE = "*" # all states
EXCLUDED_AREAS = c("as","gu", "mp","vi") # excluded areas due to small sample size
data <- load_covidcast_data(STARTDATE, ENDDATE, GEO_TYPE, GEO_VALUE, EXCLUDED_AREAS)

# Read government intervention data
urlfile="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/COVID19StatePolicy/SocialDistancing/master/data/USstatesCov19distancingpolicy.csv"
policy <- read_csv(url(urlfile))
# Convert to lower case
policy$StatePostal <- tolower(policy$StatePostal)
# First we convert the date to a proper format
policy[, c("DateIssued", "DateEnacted", "DateExpiry" ,"DateEased", "DateEnded", "DateReexpanded1", "DateReeased1")] <- data.frame(lapply(policy[, c("DateIssued", "DateEnacted", "DateExpiry" ,"DateEased", "DateEnded", "DateReexpanded1", "DateReeased1")], function(x) as.Date(as.character(x), "%Y%m%d")))

# Get the dates between start and end date
all.dates <- seq(as.Date(STARTDATE), as.Date(ENDDATE), by="days")
time_value <- sort(rep(all.dates, length(unique(policy$StatePostal)) )) 

# Generate geo_value
geo_value <- rep(unique(policy$StatePostal), length(all.dates))
policy_signal <- data.frame(time_value = time_value, geo_value = geo_value)

# Create empty columns
policy_signal[,unique(policy$StatePolicy)] <- 0

# Fill in the count for each date
  # Get the policy name and state to filer policy signal 
for (row in (1:nrow(policy))){
  current.policy <- policy[row,]$StatePolicy
  current.state <- policy[row,]$StatePostal
  if (is.na(policy[row,]$DateEnded)){
    # Filter the rows of dataframe to be the current state and the time value that is after the policy is enacted.
    policy_signal[policy_signal$geo_value == current.state & policy_signal$time_value > as.Date(policy[row,]$DateEnacted), current.policy] <- 1
  }else{
    # Get time range between Date Enacted and Date Ended
    time.range <- seq(as.Date(policy[row,]$DateEnacted), as.Date(policy[row,]$DateEnded), by = "days")
    
    # Fill in the the rows that are in the current policy and fall between the time arrange to be 1
    policy_signal[policy_signal$time_value %in% time.range & policy_signal$geo_value == current.state, current.policy] <- 1
    }
}

# Compute the sum of the number of policies for every day in the state
policy_signal$total.num.policy <- rowSums(policy_signal[unique(policy$StatePolicy)])

# Compute the average on a 7day sliding window
policy_signal <-policy_signal %>%
    arrange(desc(geo_value)) %>% 
    group_by(geo_value) %>% 
    mutate(num.policy.7avg = rollmean(total.num.policy, k = 7, fill = NA))%>%
    ungroup()

# Finalize the covidcast-like signal for governemnt intervention
covidcast.like.policy.signal <- policy_signal %>% transmute(
  geo_value = geo_value,
  signal = "policy_7dav_num",
  time_value = time_value,
  direction = NA,
  issue = lubridate::today(),
  lag = issue - time_value,
  value = num.policy.7avg,
  stderr = NA,
  sample_size = NA,
  data_source = 'University of Washington')
# We fist get all the signals
ftime.mobility <- data$Full.Time.Mobility[c("time_value","geo_value","value")] #mobility

case.count <- data$Avg.Confirmed.Case.Count[c("time_value","geo_value","value")]# case count

cumulative.case.count <-data$Cum.Avg.Case.Count[c("time_value","geo_value","value")]# cumulative case count

cumulative.case.count.prop <-data$Cum.Avg.Case.Count.Prop[c("time_value","geo_value","value")] # cumulative case count per 100,000

avg.death.count <- data$Avg.Death.Case.Count[c("time_value","geo_value","value")] #death count

cum.avg.death.count <- data$Cum.Avg.Death.Count[c("time_value","geo_value","value")] #cumulative death count

doc.visit <- data$smoothed_cli[c("time_value","geo_value","value")] # doctor visit

adj.doc.visit <- data$smoothed_adj_cli[c("time_value","geo_value","value")] # adjusted doctor visit

# Change the column name
colnames(ftime.mobility)[3]<-"full_time_work_prop"
colnames(case.count)[3] <- "confirmed_7dav_incidence_num"
colnames(cumulative.case.count)[3] <- "confirmed_7dav_cumulative"
colnames(cumulative.case.count.prop)[3] <- "confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop"
colnames(avg.death.count)[3]<-"deaths_7dav_incidence_num"
colnames(cum.avg.death.count)[3] <- "deaths_7dav_cumulative_num"
colnames(doc.visit)[3] <- "smoothed_cli"
colnames(adj.doc.visit)[3] <- "smoothed_adj_cli"

# Create a list of confounders for left join with mobility
confounders <- list(case.count, cumulative.case.count, cumulative.case.count.prop,
     avg.death.count, cum.avg.death.count, doc.visit, adj.doc.visit)

# Turn the polical signal to be factors
factored.policy.signal <- cbind(policy_signal[1:2], lapply(policy_signal[3:17], as.factor),policy_signal[18:19])

# Intervention left join mobility with policy signal
intervention_mobility_case <- left_join(ftime.mobility,factored.policy.signal , by=c("time_value", "geo_value"))

# Left join again with all other potential confounders
for (confounder in confounders){
  intervention_mobility_case <- left_join(intervention_mobility_case, confounder, by=c("time_value", "geo_value"))
}
# Filter state "pr" as it is not available in the intervention data
factored_data <- intervention_mobility_case %>% filter(!(geo_value %in% c("pr")))

Treatment effect of government interventions

Moreover, we may be interested to know the following:

  • Is there a difference in the means of mobility signal across state?

  • Is there a difference in the means of mobility signal in terms of stay-at-home order?

  • Is there an interaction between the factor of states and the factor of the order?

To answer these questions, assuming that the data are normally distributed and the variance across groups are homogeneous, we will use ANOVA (Analysis of Variance). We will check these assumptions in the model diagnostics.

Main effect of States

We can see that some states have a particularly higher range of the mean mobility signal. For example, Montana (MT) clearly stands out from the rest, whereas Hawaii (HI) has a much lower mean mobility signal from Feb. to Sep. in 2020.

# Plotting the main effect of geo_value
plotmeans(full_time_work_prop~ geo_value,data=intervention_mobility_case, xlab="Geo_value", ylab="Mobility", main="Main effect (States)") 

Interaction plots

for(i in 4:17){
  interaction.plot(factored_data[,"geo_value"], factored_data[,names(factored_data)[i]], factored_data$full_time_work_prop, xlab="States", ylab= "Full time work prop", main=paste("Interaction plot between states and", names(factored_data)[i], "on mobility"))  
}

Boxplots of mobility across different levels of intervention

# plot the boplots for categoical variables columns
p <- list()
counter <- 1
# loop through all categorical variables for intervention
for (i in 4:17){
p[[counter]]<- ggplot(factored_data, aes_string(x=names(factored_data)[3], y=names(factored_data)[i])) + 
    geom_boxplot() + 
     stat_summary(fun = mean, geom = "errorbar", aes(xmax = ..x.., xmin = ..x..), color ="red", linetype = 2)+
  labs(title=paste("Mobility by", names(factored_data)[i]), x="Mobility", y=names(factored_data)[i]) + theme(plot.title = element_text(size=9))

counter <- counter + 1
}
# Plot all the ggplot
do.call(grid.arrange,p)

Distribution of mobility by various intervention across states

# grouped boxplot
for (i in 4:17){
  
p <- ggplot(factored_data, aes_string(x=names(factored_data)[3], y=names(factored_data)[2], fill=names(factored_data)[i])) + 
    geom_boxplot() +
  labs(title=paste("Mobility by State and", names(factored_data)[i]),x="mobility", y="State")

print(p)
}

Transformations of the Response Variable

par(mfrow=c(2,2))
hist(factored_data$full_time_work_prop, main="Histogram of unchanged response", xlab="full_time_work_prop")
hist(log(factored_data$full_time_work_prop), main="Histogram of log response", xlab="full_time_work_prop")
hist(1/(factored_data$full_time_work_prop), main="Histogram of 1/response", xlab="full_time_work_prop")
hist(sqrt(factored_data$full_time_work_prop), main="Histogram of squared root of response", xlab="full_time_work_prop")

Histograms of all continuous variables

par(mfrow=c(3,3))
for (i in 19:ncol(factored_data)) 
{
  hist(factored_data[,names(factored_data)[i]], xlab=names(factored_data)[i], main=paste("Histogram of", names(factored_data)[i]))
}

par(mfrow=c(1,1))

Linear regression models comparsion (Mobility, Intervention, Confounders)

We modified the data so that the confounders are shifted n days forwarded in time based on our initial exploration.

# select best lag number based on intial exploration
case.shifted.days.spearman <- 26 # based spearman correlation
doc.visit.shifted.days.spearman <- 33 # based spearman correlation for doctor visit
cum.death.shifted.days.spearman <- 26
death.shifted.days.spearman <- 100

case.vec <- c("confirmed_7dav_incidence_num", "confirmed_7dav_cumulative", "confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop")
doc.vec <- c("smoothed_cli", "smoothed_adj_cli")
cum.death.vec <- c("deaths_7dav_cumulative_num")
death.vec <- c("deaths_7dav_incidence_num")

for (state in unique(factored_data$geo_value)){
  
  # Filter dataframe by every state
  selected.df <- factored_data %>% filter(geo_value==state)
  
  # Shift the case count column vector by the specified shift time
  factored_data <- shiftDays(selected.df, factored_data, case.shifted.days.spearman, case.vec)
  # Shift the  doctor column vector by the specified shift time
  factored_data <-shiftDays(selected.df, factored_data, doc.visit.shifted.days.spearman, doc.vec)
  
  # Shift the death count column vector by the specified shift time
  factored_data <-shiftDays(selected.df, factored_data, cum.death.shifted.days.spearman, cum.death.vec)
  # Shift the cum death count column vector by the specified shift time
  factored_data <-shiftDays(selected.df, factored_data, death.shifted.days.spearman, death.vec)
}


#Problematic: EmergDec, deaths_7dav_incidence_num

# model 1 : y is mobility, x's are the confounders and intervention
# Note: we dropped the geo and time value

lm.fit.1 <- lm(full_time_work_prop ~ confirmed_7dav_incidence_num+
                 confirmed_7dav_cumulative+
                 confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop+
                 PublicMask+
                 StayAtHome+
                 SchoolClose+
                 BarRestrict+
                 RestaurantRestrict+
                 Quarantine+
                 NEBusinessClose+
                 TravelRestrictIntra+
                 TravelRestrictExit+
                 TravelRestrictEntry+
                 GathRecom+
                 total.num.policy+
                 num.policy.7avg+
                deaths_7dav_cumulative_num+
                 smoothed_cli+
                 smoothed_adj_cli+
                 CaseIsolation, data=factored_data[,-c(1,2,4,24)], na.action = na.exclude)

summary(lm.fit.1)
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = full_time_work_prop ~ confirmed_7dav_incidence_num + 
##     confirmed_7dav_cumulative + confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop + 
##     PublicMask + StayAtHome + SchoolClose + BarRestrict + RestaurantRestrict + 
##     Quarantine + NEBusinessClose + TravelRestrictIntra + TravelRestrictExit + 
##     TravelRestrictEntry + GathRecom + total.num.policy + num.policy.7avg + 
##     deaths_7dav_cumulative_num + smoothed_cli + smoothed_adj_cli + 
##     CaseIsolation, data = factored_data[, -c(1, 2, 4, 24)], na.action = na.exclude)
## 
## Residuals:
##       Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max 
## -0.038043 -0.007214  0.000450  0.006409  0.047913 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                  Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                     4.353e-02  6.958e-04  62.563  < 2e-16 ***
## confirmed_7dav_incidence_num    1.112e-08  1.487e-07   0.075 0.940364    
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative       1.124e-08  3.363e-09   3.343 0.000832 ***
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop  6.447e-06  2.911e-07  22.146  < 2e-16 ***
## PublicMask1                     1.677e-03  4.446e-04   3.772 0.000163 ***
## StayAtHome1                     1.317e-03  4.419e-04   2.980 0.002889 ** 
## SchoolClose1                   -5.343e-03  4.303e-04 -12.418  < 2e-16 ***
## BarRestrict1                    1.474e-04  1.071e-03   0.138 0.890494    
## RestaurantRestrict1            -2.068e-04  7.558e-04  -0.274 0.784389    
## Quarantine1                     1.359e-03  3.810e-04   3.566 0.000364 ***
## NEBusinessClose1                1.105e-03  4.441e-04   2.488 0.012875 *  
## TravelRestrictIntra1           -2.814e-03  7.696e-04  -3.656 0.000258 ***
## TravelRestrictExit1            -2.939e-03  1.762e-03  -1.668 0.095273 .  
## TravelRestrictEntry1            3.662e-04  7.968e-04   0.460 0.645851    
## GathRecom1                      6.163e-04  3.585e-04   1.719 0.085667 .  
## total.num.policy                6.937e-04  6.822e-04   1.017 0.309192    
## num.policy.7avg                -1.220e-03  6.102e-04  -2.000 0.045565 *  
## deaths_7dav_cumulative_num     -4.479e-07  5.111e-08  -8.764  < 2e-16 ***
## smoothed_cli                   -7.382e-03  1.487e-04 -49.628  < 2e-16 ***
## smoothed_adj_cli                7.450e-03  1.689e-04  44.117  < 2e-16 ***
## CaseIsolation1                  2.363e-03  4.162e-04   5.678  1.4e-08 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 0.01048 on 9822 degrees of freedom
##   (1683 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.3318, Adjusted R-squared:  0.3305 
## F-statistic: 243.9 on 20 and 9822 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16
# Plot the normal qq plot, residuals vs. fitted values
par(mfrow=c(2,2))
plot(lm.fit.1)

# model 1: include all two way interaction 
lm.fit.2 <- lm(full_time_work_prop~.^2, data=factored_data[,-c(1,2,4,24)])
summary(lm.fit.2)
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = full_time_work_prop ~ .^2, data = factored_data[, 
##     -c(1, 2, 4, 24)])
## 
## Residuals:
##       Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max 
## -0.045272 -0.005739  0.000684  0.005813  0.044673 
## 
## Coefficients: (54 not defined because of singularities)
##                                                               Estimate
## (Intercept)                                                  3.341e-02
## SchoolClose1                                                 5.542e-03
## GathRestrict1                                               -6.490e-03
## BarRestrict1                                                 2.082e-03
## OtherBusinessClose1                                          5.199e-02
## RestaurantRestrict1                                         -2.417e-02
## CaseIsolation1                                              -1.945e-02
## StayAtHome1                                                 -1.873e-02
## PublicMask1                                                 -7.039e-03
## Quarantine1                                                  2.568e-03
## NEBusinessClose1                                            -8.219e-04
## TravelRestrictIntra1                                         4.596e-02
## GathRecom1                                                   4.002e-03
## TravelRestrictExit1                                          1.723e-02
## TravelRestrictEntry1                                        -6.056e-02
## total.num.policy                                                    NA
## num.policy.7avg                                              2.403e-03
## confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                                 2.585e-05
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative                                    7.764e-08
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                               1.968e-05
## deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                                  -3.643e-06
## smoothed_cli                                                -1.568e-02
## smoothed_adj_cli                                             1.663e-02
## SchoolClose1:GathRestrict1                                   1.377e-02
## SchoolClose1:BarRestrict1                                    1.044e-03
## SchoolClose1:OtherBusinessClose1                             2.839e-03
## SchoolClose1:RestaurantRestrict1                            -9.327e-03
## SchoolClose1:CaseIsolation1                                  1.380e-03
## SchoolClose1:StayAtHome1                                    -3.561e-04
## SchoolClose1:PublicMask1                                     1.653e-03
## SchoolClose1:Quarantine1                                     3.844e-03
## SchoolClose1:NEBusinessClose1                                5.587e-03
## SchoolClose1:TravelRestrictIntra1                           -1.462e-02
## SchoolClose1:GathRecom1                                      1.421e-03
## SchoolClose1:TravelRestrictExit1                                    NA
## SchoolClose1:TravelRestrictEntry1                            1.935e-03
## SchoolClose1:total.num.policy                                       NA
## SchoolClose1:num.policy.7avg                                -2.633e-03
## SchoolClose1:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                    1.891e-06
## SchoolClose1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                       7.556e-08
## SchoolClose1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                 -5.395e-06
## SchoolClose1:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                     -2.626e-07
## SchoolClose1:smoothed_cli                                    2.305e-03
## SchoolClose1:smoothed_adj_cli                               -2.827e-03
## GathRestrict1:BarRestrict1                                   2.156e-03
## GathRestrict1:OtherBusinessClose1                                   NA
## GathRestrict1:RestaurantRestrict1                                   NA
## GathRestrict1:CaseIsolation1                                -1.916e-03
## GathRestrict1:StayAtHome1                                    4.925e-03
## GathRestrict1:PublicMask1                                    7.156e-03
## GathRestrict1:Quarantine1                                    1.170e-02
## GathRestrict1:NEBusinessClose1                               6.587e-03
## GathRestrict1:TravelRestrictIntra1                          -1.773e-02
## GathRestrict1:GathRecom1                                     7.430e-04
## GathRestrict1:TravelRestrictExit1                                   NA
## GathRestrict1:TravelRestrictEntry1                                  NA
## GathRestrict1:total.num.policy                                      NA
## GathRestrict1:num.policy.7avg                               -2.111e-03
## GathRestrict1:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                  -1.437e-06
## GathRestrict1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                      3.525e-07
## GathRestrict1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                -1.248e-05
## GathRestrict1:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                    -1.106e-05
## GathRestrict1:smoothed_cli                                  -2.154e-03
## GathRestrict1:smoothed_adj_cli                               2.082e-03
## BarRestrict1:OtherBusinessClose1                            -3.305e-02
## BarRestrict1:RestaurantRestrict1                             7.786e-03
## BarRestrict1:CaseIsolation1                                  3.074e-02
## BarRestrict1:StayAtHome1                                     1.861e-02
## BarRestrict1:PublicMask1                                    -1.070e-02
## BarRestrict1:Quarantine1                                    -1.374e-02
## BarRestrict1:NEBusinessClose1                                       NA
## BarRestrict1:TravelRestrictIntra1                           -6.068e-02
## BarRestrict1:GathRecom1                                     -1.280e-03
## BarRestrict1:TravelRestrictExit1                                    NA
## BarRestrict1:TravelRestrictEntry1                                   NA
## BarRestrict1:total.num.policy                                       NA
## BarRestrict1:num.policy.7avg                                -3.760e-03
## BarRestrict1:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                   -1.320e-05
## BarRestrict1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                      -1.980e-06
## BarRestrict1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                  9.653e-05
## BarRestrict1:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                      1.552e-05
## BarRestrict1:smoothed_cli                                   -8.193e-04
## BarRestrict1:smoothed_adj_cli                                2.311e-03
## OtherBusinessClose1:RestaurantRestrict1                             NA
## OtherBusinessClose1:CaseIsolation1                           5.018e-03
## OtherBusinessClose1:StayAtHome1                             -1.498e-03
## OtherBusinessClose1:PublicMask1                              4.244e-03
## OtherBusinessClose1:Quarantine1                              1.675e-02
## OtherBusinessClose1:NEBusinessClose1                         7.120e-03
## OtherBusinessClose1:TravelRestrictIntra1                            NA
## OtherBusinessClose1:GathRecom1                               2.760e-04
## OtherBusinessClose1:TravelRestrictExit1                             NA
## OtherBusinessClose1:TravelRestrictEntry1                            NA
## OtherBusinessClose1:total.num.policy                                NA
## OtherBusinessClose1:num.policy.7avg                         -4.163e-03
## OtherBusinessClose1:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num             2.367e-06
## OtherBusinessClose1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                9.416e-07
## OtherBusinessClose1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop          -3.231e-05
## OtherBusinessClose1:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num              -7.053e-06
## OtherBusinessClose1:smoothed_cli                             4.848e-03
## OtherBusinessClose1:smoothed_adj_cli                        -5.333e-03
## RestaurantRestrict1:CaseIsolation1                          -2.936e-02
## RestaurantRestrict1:StayAtHome1                             -2.269e-02
## RestaurantRestrict1:PublicMask1                                     NA
## RestaurantRestrict1:Quarantine1                             -2.981e-04
## RestaurantRestrict1:NEBusinessClose1                                NA
## RestaurantRestrict1:TravelRestrictIntra1                            NA
## RestaurantRestrict1:GathRecom1                                      NA
## RestaurantRestrict1:TravelRestrictExit1                             NA
## RestaurantRestrict1:TravelRestrictEntry1                            NA
## RestaurantRestrict1:total.num.policy                                NA
## RestaurantRestrict1:num.policy.7avg                          8.666e-03
## RestaurantRestrict1:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num            -5.306e-06
## RestaurantRestrict1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                8.071e-07
## RestaurantRestrict1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop          -6.206e-05
## RestaurantRestrict1:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num              -9.204e-07
## RestaurantRestrict1:smoothed_cli                             2.974e-03
## RestaurantRestrict1:smoothed_adj_cli                        -2.712e-03
## CaseIsolation1:StayAtHome1                                  -4.053e-03
## CaseIsolation1:PublicMask1                                  -2.810e-04
## CaseIsolation1:Quarantine1                                   5.041e-03
## CaseIsolation1:NEBusinessClose1                              7.956e-03
## CaseIsolation1:TravelRestrictIntra1                         -1.856e-02
## CaseIsolation1:GathRecom1                                   -2.491e-03
## CaseIsolation1:TravelRestrictExit1                                  NA
## CaseIsolation1:TravelRestrictEntry1                                 NA
## CaseIsolation1:total.num.policy                                     NA
## CaseIsolation1:num.policy.7avg                               1.715e-03
## CaseIsolation1:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                 -1.677e-06
## CaseIsolation1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                    -1.086e-07
## CaseIsolation1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                7.170e-07
## CaseIsolation1:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                    2.838e-06
## CaseIsolation1:smoothed_cli                                 -4.486e-04
## CaseIsolation1:smoothed_adj_cli                              1.214e-03
## StayAtHome1:PublicMask1                                     -1.433e-03
## StayAtHome1:Quarantine1                                      1.230e-03
## StayAtHome1:NEBusinessClose1                                 9.349e-03
## StayAtHome1:TravelRestrictIntra1                            -7.507e-03
## StayAtHome1:GathRecom1                                      -3.231e-03
## StayAtHome1:TravelRestrictExit1                                     NA
## StayAtHome1:TravelRestrictEntry1                                    NA
## StayAtHome1:total.num.policy                                        NA
## StayAtHome1:num.policy.7avg                                  2.674e-03
## StayAtHome1:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                    -1.462e-06
## StayAtHome1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                        2.481e-07
## StayAtHome1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                  -6.639e-06
## StayAtHome1:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                      -2.583e-06
## StayAtHome1:smoothed_cli                                    -6.410e-04
## StayAtHome1:smoothed_adj_cli                                 4.813e-04
## PublicMask1:Quarantine1                                      4.910e-03
## PublicMask1:NEBusinessClose1                                 4.014e-03
## PublicMask1:TravelRestrictIntra1                            -8.907e-03
## PublicMask1:GathRecom1                                       3.024e-03
## PublicMask1:TravelRestrictExit1                             -4.773e-03
## PublicMask1:TravelRestrictEntry1                            -1.591e-02
## PublicMask1:total.num.policy                                        NA
## PublicMask1:num.policy.7avg                                  5.438e-04
## PublicMask1:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                     5.215e-08
## PublicMask1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                       -2.566e-07
## PublicMask1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                   5.643e-06
## PublicMask1:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                       4.561e-06
## PublicMask1:smoothed_cli                                     5.423e-03
## PublicMask1:smoothed_adj_cli                                -6.439e-03
## Quarantine1:NEBusinessClose1                                 1.460e-02
## Quarantine1:TravelRestrictIntra1                                    NA
## Quarantine1:GathRecom1                                      -6.275e-05
## Quarantine1:TravelRestrictExit1                                     NA
## Quarantine1:TravelRestrictEntry1                            -4.986e-03
## Quarantine1:total.num.policy                                        NA
## Quarantine1:num.policy.7avg                                 -2.962e-03
## Quarantine1:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                    -6.838e-08
## Quarantine1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                        1.919e-07
## Quarantine1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                  -6.843e-06
## Quarantine1:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                      -2.147e-06
## Quarantine1:smoothed_cli                                     1.542e-03
## Quarantine1:smoothed_adj_cli                                -1.844e-03
## NEBusinessClose1:TravelRestrictIntra1                               NA
## NEBusinessClose1:GathRecom1                                  4.339e-03
## NEBusinessClose1:TravelRestrictExit1                                NA
## NEBusinessClose1:TravelRestrictEntry1                               NA
## NEBusinessClose1:total.num.policy                                   NA
## NEBusinessClose1:num.policy.7avg                            -3.719e-03
## NEBusinessClose1:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                3.048e-06
## NEBusinessClose1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                  -9.169e-08
## NEBusinessClose1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop             -2.849e-06
## NEBusinessClose1:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                  2.146e-06
## NEBusinessClose1:smoothed_cli                                2.875e-03
## NEBusinessClose1:smoothed_adj_cli                           -2.677e-03
## TravelRestrictIntra1:GathRecom1                             -2.471e-02
## TravelRestrictIntra1:TravelRestrictExit1                            NA
## TravelRestrictIntra1:TravelRestrictEntry1                           NA
## TravelRestrictIntra1:total.num.policy                               NA
## TravelRestrictIntra1:num.policy.7avg                         6.403e-03
## TravelRestrictIntra1:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num            2.750e-05
## TravelRestrictIntra1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative              -6.323e-07
## TravelRestrictIntra1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop         -1.416e-07
## TravelRestrictIntra1:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num              4.305e-05
## TravelRestrictIntra1:smoothed_cli                            5.867e-03
## TravelRestrictIntra1:smoothed_adj_cli                       -6.393e-03
## GathRecom1:TravelRestrictExit1                                      NA
## GathRecom1:TravelRestrictEntry1                                     NA
## GathRecom1:total.num.policy                                         NA
## GathRecom1:num.policy.7avg                                  -3.626e-04
## GathRecom1:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                      1.541e-06
## GathRecom1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                        -9.371e-08
## GathRecom1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                   -1.061e-06
## GathRecom1:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                        2.035e-06
## GathRecom1:smoothed_cli                                      5.842e-04
## GathRecom1:smoothed_adj_cli                                 -1.426e-03
## TravelRestrictExit1:TravelRestrictEntry1                    -3.809e-03
## TravelRestrictExit1:total.num.policy                                NA
## TravelRestrictExit1:num.policy.7avg                         -1.829e-03
## TravelRestrictExit1:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num             7.326e-04
## TravelRestrictExit1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative               -1.787e-04
## TravelRestrictExit1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                  NA
## TravelRestrictExit1:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num               1.896e-03
## TravelRestrictExit1:smoothed_cli                            -1.944e-02
## TravelRestrictExit1:smoothed_adj_cli                         3.201e-02
## TravelRestrictEntry1:total.num.policy                               NA
## TravelRestrictEntry1:num.policy.7avg                         6.415e-03
## TravelRestrictEntry1:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num            5.419e-06
## TravelRestrictEntry1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative              -2.865e-07
## TravelRestrictEntry1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop          3.937e-05
## TravelRestrictEntry1:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num              9.633e-07
## TravelRestrictEntry1:smoothed_cli                           -1.570e-02
## TravelRestrictEntry1:smoothed_adj_cli                        1.482e-02
## total.num.policy:num.policy.7avg                                    NA
## total.num.policy:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                       NA
## total.num.policy:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                          NA
## total.num.policy:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                     NA
## total.num.policy:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                         NA
## total.num.policy:smoothed_cli                                       NA
## total.num.policy:smoothed_adj_cli                                   NA
## num.policy.7avg:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                -1.299e-06
## num.policy.7avg:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                    6.296e-09
## num.policy.7avg:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop               1.131e-06
## num.policy.7avg:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                  -2.379e-07
## num.policy.7avg:smoothed_cli                                -7.061e-04
## num.policy.7avg:smoothed_adj_cli                             6.459e-04
## confirmed_7dav_incidence_num:confirmed_7dav_cumulative      -1.969e-11
## confirmed_7dav_incidence_num:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop  3.850e-09
## confirmed_7dav_incidence_num:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num      2.044e-10
## confirmed_7dav_incidence_num:smoothed_cli                    7.081e-07
## confirmed_7dav_incidence_num:smoothed_adj_cli               -1.054e-06
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop    -1.045e-10
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num         2.800e-12
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative:smoothed_cli                      -1.695e-08
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative:smoothed_adj_cli                   3.737e-08
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num    2.136e-09
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop:smoothed_cli                 -5.177e-07
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop:smoothed_adj_cli             -8.943e-07
## deaths_7dav_cumulative_num:smoothed_cli                      2.237e-07
## deaths_7dav_cumulative_num:smoothed_adj_cli                 -4.654e-07
## smoothed_cli:smoothed_adj_cli                                9.004e-05
##                                                             Std. Error t value
## (Intercept)                                                  5.045e-03   6.623
## SchoolClose1                                                 3.998e-03   1.386
## GathRestrict1                                                4.579e-03  -1.417
## BarRestrict1                                                 5.416e-02   0.038
## OtherBusinessClose1                                          1.253e-02   4.149
## RestaurantRestrict1                                          1.663e-02  -1.454
## CaseIsolation1                                               6.599e-03  -2.948
## StayAtHome1                                                  4.691e-03  -3.992
## PublicMask1                                                  4.009e-03  -1.756
## Quarantine1                                                  4.511e-03   0.569
## NEBusinessClose1                                             8.988e-03  -0.091
## TravelRestrictIntra1                                         1.302e-02   3.530
## GathRecom1                                                   4.020e-03   0.996
## TravelRestrictExit1                                          8.321e-02   0.207
## TravelRestrictEntry1                                         3.850e-02  -1.573
## total.num.policy                                                    NA      NA
## num.policy.7avg                                              2.541e-03   0.946
## confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                                 4.104e-06   6.297
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative                                    1.584e-07   0.490
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                               4.894e-06   4.022
## deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                                   4.356e-06  -0.836
## smoothed_cli                                                 1.757e-03  -8.921
## smoothed_adj_cli                                             1.848e-03   8.999
## SchoolClose1:GathRestrict1                                   3.215e-03   4.282
## SchoolClose1:BarRestrict1                                    5.845e-03   0.179
## SchoolClose1:OtherBusinessClose1                             3.551e-03   0.799
## SchoolClose1:RestaurantRestrict1                             4.864e-03  -1.917
## SchoolClose1:CaseIsolation1                                  2.803e-03   0.492
## SchoolClose1:StayAtHome1                                     2.443e-03  -0.146
## SchoolClose1:PublicMask1                                     3.111e-03   0.531
## SchoolClose1:Quarantine1                                     2.304e-03   1.668
## SchoolClose1:NEBusinessClose1                                2.736e-03   2.042
## SchoolClose1:TravelRestrictIntra1                            4.847e-03  -3.016
## SchoolClose1:GathRecom1                                      2.432e-03   0.584
## SchoolClose1:TravelRestrictExit1                                    NA      NA
## SchoolClose1:TravelRestrictEntry1                            5.469e-03   0.354
## SchoolClose1:total.num.policy                                       NA      NA
## SchoolClose1:num.policy.7avg                                 1.958e-03  -1.345
## SchoolClose1:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                    1.557e-06   1.215
## SchoolClose1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                       2.644e-08   2.858
## SchoolClose1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                  2.576e-06  -2.094
## SchoolClose1:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                      4.358e-07  -0.603
## SchoolClose1:smoothed_cli                                    1.401e-03   1.645
## SchoolClose1:smoothed_adj_cli                                1.433e-03  -1.972
## GathRestrict1:BarRestrict1                                   6.091e-03   0.354
## GathRestrict1:OtherBusinessClose1                                   NA      NA
## GathRestrict1:RestaurantRestrict1                                   NA      NA
## GathRestrict1:CaseIsolation1                                 4.128e-03  -0.464
## GathRestrict1:StayAtHome1                                    2.567e-03   1.919
## GathRestrict1:PublicMask1                                    2.734e-03   2.618
## GathRestrict1:Quarantine1                                    2.902e-03   4.032
## GathRestrict1:NEBusinessClose1                               3.276e-03   2.011
## GathRestrict1:TravelRestrictIntra1                           5.625e-03  -3.151
## GathRestrict1:GathRecom1                                     3.215e-03   0.231
## GathRestrict1:TravelRestrictExit1                                   NA      NA
## GathRestrict1:TravelRestrictEntry1                                  NA      NA
## GathRestrict1:total.num.policy                                      NA      NA
## GathRestrict1:num.policy.7avg                                1.895e-03  -1.114
## GathRestrict1:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                   2.136e-06  -0.673
## GathRestrict1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                      4.536e-08   7.771
## GathRestrict1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                 3.360e-06  -3.714
## GathRestrict1:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                     1.744e-06  -6.342
## GathRestrict1:smoothed_cli                                   1.620e-03  -1.329
## GathRestrict1:smoothed_adj_cli                               1.702e-03   1.223
## BarRestrict1:OtherBusinessClose1                             6.250e-03  -5.288
## BarRestrict1:RestaurantRestrict1                             4.340e-02   0.179
## BarRestrict1:CaseIsolation1                                  1.775e-02   1.732
## BarRestrict1:StayAtHome1                                     4.199e-02   0.443
## BarRestrict1:PublicMask1                                     5.026e-03  -2.129
## BarRestrict1:Quarantine1                                     8.065e-03  -1.703
## BarRestrict1:NEBusinessClose1                                       NA      NA
## BarRestrict1:TravelRestrictIntra1                            1.259e-02  -4.819
## BarRestrict1:GathRecom1                                      4.578e-03  -0.280
## BarRestrict1:TravelRestrictExit1                                    NA      NA
## BarRestrict1:TravelRestrictEntry1                                   NA      NA
## BarRestrict1:total.num.policy                                       NA      NA
## BarRestrict1:num.policy.7avg                                 4.499e-03  -0.836
## BarRestrict1:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                    5.777e-06  -2.285
## BarRestrict1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                       6.438e-07  -3.076
## BarRestrict1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                  4.459e-05   2.165
## BarRestrict1:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                      1.292e-05   1.201
## BarRestrict1:smoothed_cli                                    1.913e-03  -0.428
## BarRestrict1:smoothed_adj_cli                                2.355e-03   0.981
## OtherBusinessClose1:RestaurantRestrict1                             NA      NA
## OtherBusinessClose1:CaseIsolation1                           4.444e-03   1.129
## OtherBusinessClose1:StayAtHome1                              3.545e-03  -0.423
## OtherBusinessClose1:PublicMask1                              3.864e-03   1.098
## OtherBusinessClose1:Quarantine1                              4.572e-03   3.664
## OtherBusinessClose1:NEBusinessClose1                         5.541e-03   1.285
## OtherBusinessClose1:TravelRestrictIntra1                            NA      NA
## OtherBusinessClose1:GathRecom1                               3.944e-03   0.070
## OtherBusinessClose1:TravelRestrictExit1                             NA      NA
## OtherBusinessClose1:TravelRestrictEntry1                            NA      NA
## OtherBusinessClose1:total.num.policy                                NA      NA
## OtherBusinessClose1:num.policy.7avg                          2.481e-03  -1.678
## OtherBusinessClose1:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num             2.648e-06   0.894
## OtherBusinessClose1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                2.349e-07   4.009
## OtherBusinessClose1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop           6.596e-06  -4.898
## OtherBusinessClose1:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num               2.143e-06  -3.291
## OtherBusinessClose1:smoothed_cli                             1.678e-03   2.889
## OtherBusinessClose1:smoothed_adj_cli                         1.756e-03  -3.037
## RestaurantRestrict1:CaseIsolation1                           1.696e-02  -1.732
## RestaurantRestrict1:StayAtHome1                              4.172e-02  -0.544
## RestaurantRestrict1:PublicMask1                                     NA      NA
## RestaurantRestrict1:Quarantine1                              6.373e-03  -0.047
## RestaurantRestrict1:NEBusinessClose1                                NA      NA
## RestaurantRestrict1:TravelRestrictIntra1                            NA      NA
## RestaurantRestrict1:GathRecom1                                      NA      NA
## RestaurantRestrict1:TravelRestrictExit1                             NA      NA
## RestaurantRestrict1:TravelRestrictEntry1                            NA      NA
## RestaurantRestrict1:total.num.policy                                NA      NA
## RestaurantRestrict1:num.policy.7avg                          3.627e-03   2.389
## RestaurantRestrict1:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num             3.556e-06  -1.492
## RestaurantRestrict1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                5.919e-07   1.364
## RestaurantRestrict1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop           4.396e-05  -1.412
## RestaurantRestrict1:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num               1.206e-05  -0.076
## RestaurantRestrict1:smoothed_cli                             1.594e-03   1.866
## RestaurantRestrict1:smoothed_adj_cli                         1.898e-03  -1.429
## CaseIsolation1:StayAtHome1                                   2.784e-03  -1.456
## CaseIsolation1:PublicMask1                                   2.480e-03  -0.113
## CaseIsolation1:Quarantine1                                   2.741e-03   1.839
## CaseIsolation1:NEBusinessClose1                              2.795e-03   2.846
## CaseIsolation1:TravelRestrictIntra1                          4.643e-03  -3.998
## CaseIsolation1:GathRecom1                                    2.597e-03  -0.959
## CaseIsolation1:TravelRestrictExit1                                  NA      NA
## CaseIsolation1:TravelRestrictEntry1                                 NA      NA
## CaseIsolation1:total.num.policy                                     NA      NA
## CaseIsolation1:num.policy.7avg                               1.960e-03   0.875
## CaseIsolation1:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                  1.918e-06  -0.875
## CaseIsolation1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                     4.049e-08  -2.683
## CaseIsolation1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                2.717e-06   0.264
## CaseIsolation1:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                    8.012e-07   3.543
## CaseIsolation1:smoothed_cli                                  1.437e-03  -0.312
## CaseIsolation1:smoothed_adj_cli                              1.462e-03   0.830
## StayAtHome1:PublicMask1                                      2.237e-03  -0.641
## StayAtHome1:Quarantine1                                      2.081e-03   0.591
## StayAtHome1:NEBusinessClose1                                 2.048e-03   4.565
## StayAtHome1:TravelRestrictIntra1                             6.375e-03  -1.178
## StayAtHome1:GathRecom1                                       2.090e-03  -1.546
## StayAtHome1:TravelRestrictExit1                                     NA      NA
## StayAtHome1:TravelRestrictEntry1                                    NA      NA
## StayAtHome1:total.num.policy                                        NA      NA
## StayAtHome1:num.policy.7avg                                  1.477e-03   1.810
## StayAtHome1:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                     1.957e-06  -0.747
## StayAtHome1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                        4.044e-08   6.134
## StayAtHome1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                   2.799e-06  -2.372
## StayAtHome1:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                       5.654e-07  -4.568
## StayAtHome1:smoothed_cli                                     1.422e-03  -0.451
## StayAtHome1:smoothed_adj_cli                                 1.440e-03   0.334
## PublicMask1:Quarantine1                                      1.938e-03   2.533
## PublicMask1:NEBusinessClose1                                 2.418e-03   1.660
## PublicMask1:TravelRestrictIntra1                             4.175e-03  -2.134
## PublicMask1:GathRecom1                                       1.995e-03   1.515
## PublicMask1:TravelRestrictExit1                              9.679e-03  -0.493
## PublicMask1:TravelRestrictEntry1                             4.767e-03  -3.338
## PublicMask1:total.num.policy                                        NA      NA
## PublicMask1:num.policy.7avg                                  1.546e-03   0.352
## PublicMask1:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                     2.100e-06   0.025
## PublicMask1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                        1.546e-07  -1.659
## PublicMask1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                   4.603e-06   1.226
## PublicMask1:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                       3.472e-06   1.314
## PublicMask1:smoothed_cli                                     1.564e-03   3.468
## PublicMask1:smoothed_adj_cli                                 1.627e-03  -3.958
## Quarantine1:NEBusinessClose1                                 2.436e-03   5.993
## Quarantine1:TravelRestrictIntra1                                    NA      NA
## Quarantine1:GathRecom1                                       1.987e-03  -0.032
## Quarantine1:TravelRestrictExit1                                     NA      NA
## Quarantine1:TravelRestrictEntry1                             1.080e-02  -0.462
## Quarantine1:total.num.policy                                        NA      NA
## Quarantine1:num.policy.7avg                                  1.431e-03  -2.070
## Quarantine1:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                     2.064e-06  -0.033
## Quarantine1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                        3.727e-08   5.149
## Quarantine1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                   2.626e-06  -2.606
## Quarantine1:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                       5.418e-07  -3.964
## Quarantine1:smoothed_cli                                     1.411e-03   1.093
## Quarantine1:smoothed_adj_cli                                 1.423e-03  -1.296
## NEBusinessClose1:TravelRestrictIntra1                               NA      NA
## NEBusinessClose1:GathRecom1                                  1.951e-03   2.224
## NEBusinessClose1:TravelRestrictExit1                                NA      NA
## NEBusinessClose1:TravelRestrictEntry1                               NA      NA
## NEBusinessClose1:total.num.policy                                   NA      NA
## NEBusinessClose1:num.policy.7avg                             1.544e-03  -2.408
## NEBusinessClose1:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                1.882e-06   1.619
## NEBusinessClose1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                   3.305e-08  -2.774
## NEBusinessClose1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop              2.668e-06  -1.068
## NEBusinessClose1:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                  1.022e-06   2.100
## NEBusinessClose1:smoothed_cli                                1.448e-03   1.986
## NEBusinessClose1:smoothed_adj_cli                            1.480e-03  -1.809
## TravelRestrictIntra1:GathRecom1                              3.971e-03  -6.224
## TravelRestrictIntra1:TravelRestrictExit1                            NA      NA
## TravelRestrictIntra1:TravelRestrictEntry1                           NA      NA
## TravelRestrictIntra1:total.num.policy                               NA      NA
## TravelRestrictIntra1:num.policy.7avg                         2.970e-03   2.156
## TravelRestrictIntra1:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num            2.626e-05   1.047
## TravelRestrictIntra1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative               3.202e-06  -0.198
## TravelRestrictIntra1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop          2.102e-05  -0.007
## TravelRestrictIntra1:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num              2.146e-04   0.201
## TravelRestrictIntra1:smoothed_cli                            4.984e-03   1.177
## TravelRestrictIntra1:smoothed_adj_cli                        4.087e-03  -1.564
## GathRecom1:TravelRestrictExit1                                      NA      NA
## GathRecom1:TravelRestrictEntry1                                     NA      NA
## GathRecom1:total.num.policy                                         NA      NA
## GathRecom1:num.policy.7avg                                   1.225e-03  -0.296
## GathRecom1:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                      1.714e-06   0.899
## GathRecom1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                         3.866e-08  -2.424
## GathRecom1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                    2.711e-06  -0.391
## GathRecom1:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                        6.189e-07   3.288
## GathRecom1:smoothed_cli                                      1.425e-03   0.410
## GathRecom1:smoothed_adj_cli                                  1.460e-03  -0.976
## TravelRestrictExit1:TravelRestrictEntry1                     1.354e-02  -0.281
## TravelRestrictExit1:total.num.policy                                NA      NA
## TravelRestrictExit1:num.policy.7avg                          7.662e-03  -0.239
## TravelRestrictExit1:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num             4.676e-04   1.567
## TravelRestrictExit1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                2.162e-04  -0.826
## TravelRestrictExit1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                  NA      NA
## TravelRestrictExit1:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num               2.914e-03   0.651
## TravelRestrictExit1:smoothed_cli                             1.273e-02  -1.527
## TravelRestrictExit1:smoothed_adj_cli                         3.220e-02   0.994
## TravelRestrictEntry1:total.num.policy                               NA      NA
## TravelRestrictEntry1:num.policy.7avg                         4.252e-03   1.509
## TravelRestrictEntry1:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num            5.056e-06   1.072
## TravelRestrictEntry1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative               4.480e-07  -0.639
## TravelRestrictEntry1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop          5.052e-05   0.779
## TravelRestrictEntry1:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num              2.111e-06   0.456
## TravelRestrictEntry1:smoothed_cli                            2.632e-03  -5.966
## TravelRestrictEntry1:smoothed_adj_cli                        3.016e-03   4.914
## total.num.policy:num.policy.7avg                                    NA      NA
## total.num.policy:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                       NA      NA
## total.num.policy:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                          NA      NA
## total.num.policy:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                     NA      NA
## total.num.policy:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                         NA      NA
## total.num.policy:smoothed_cli                                       NA      NA
## total.num.policy:smoothed_adj_cli                                   NA      NA
## num.policy.7avg:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                 1.616e-06  -0.804
## num.policy.7avg:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                    1.808e-08   0.348
## num.policy.7avg:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop               2.447e-06   0.462
## num.policy.7avg:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                   3.955e-07  -0.601
## num.policy.7avg:smoothed_cli                                 1.385e-03  -0.510
## num.policy.7avg:smoothed_adj_cli                             1.400e-03   0.461
## confirmed_7dav_incidence_num:confirmed_7dav_cumulative       2.384e-12  -8.260
## confirmed_7dav_incidence_num:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop  5.524e-10   6.969
## confirmed_7dav_incidence_num:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num      7.428e-11   2.752
## confirmed_7dav_incidence_num:smoothed_cli                    1.152e-07   6.147
## confirmed_7dav_incidence_num:smoothed_adj_cli                1.426e-07  -7.388
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop     1.237e-11  -8.449
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num         1.107e-12   2.531
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative:smoothed_cli                       3.177e-09  -5.335
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative:smoothed_adj_cli                   5.462e-09   6.843
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num    3.115e-10   6.857
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop:smoothed_cli                  3.010e-07  -1.720
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop:smoothed_adj_cli              3.612e-07  -2.476
## deaths_7dav_cumulative_num:smoothed_cli                      4.478e-08   4.994
## deaths_7dav_cumulative_num:smoothed_adj_cli                  6.814e-08  -6.830
## smoothed_cli:smoothed_adj_cli                                2.075e-05   4.339
##                                                             Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                                                 3.72e-11 ***
## SchoolClose1                                                0.165691    
## GathRestrict1                                               0.156428    
## BarRestrict1                                                0.969328    
## OtherBusinessClose1                                         3.37e-05 ***
## RestaurantRestrict1                                         0.146112    
## CaseIsolation1                                              0.003206 ** 
## StayAtHome1                                                 6.60e-05 ***
## PublicMask1                                                 0.079166 .  
## Quarantine1                                                 0.569212    
## NEBusinessClose1                                            0.927148    
## TravelRestrictIntra1                                        0.000418 ***
## GathRecom1                                                  0.319493    
## TravelRestrictExit1                                         0.835964    
## TravelRestrictEntry1                                        0.115726    
## total.num.policy                                                  NA    
## num.policy.7avg                                             0.344358    
## confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                                3.16e-10 ***
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative                                   0.623943    
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                              5.81e-05 ***
## deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                                  0.403020    
## smoothed_cli                                                 < 2e-16 ***
## smoothed_adj_cli                                             < 2e-16 ***
## SchoolClose1:GathRestrict1                                  1.87e-05 ***
## SchoolClose1:BarRestrict1                                   0.858304    
## SchoolClose1:OtherBusinessClose1                            0.424113    
## SchoolClose1:RestaurantRestrict1                            0.055204 .  
## SchoolClose1:CaseIsolation1                                 0.622561    
## SchoolClose1:StayAtHome1                                    0.884115    
## SchoolClose1:PublicMask1                                    0.595354    
## SchoolClose1:Quarantine1                                    0.095330 .  
## SchoolClose1:NEBusinessClose1                               0.041139 *  
## SchoolClose1:TravelRestrictIntra1                           0.002571 ** 
## SchoolClose1:GathRecom1                                     0.558971    
## SchoolClose1:TravelRestrictExit1                                  NA    
## SchoolClose1:TravelRestrictEntry1                           0.723441    
## SchoolClose1:total.num.policy                                     NA    
## SchoolClose1:num.policy.7avg                                0.178662    
## SchoolClose1:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                   0.224576    
## SchoolClose1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                      0.004268 ** 
## SchoolClose1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                 0.036243 *  
## SchoolClose1:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                     0.546772    
## SchoolClose1:smoothed_cli                                   0.100002    
## SchoolClose1:smoothed_adj_cli                               0.048635 *  
## GathRestrict1:BarRestrict1                                  0.723342    
## GathRestrict1:OtherBusinessClose1                                 NA    
## GathRestrict1:RestaurantRestrict1                                 NA    
## GathRestrict1:CaseIsolation1                                0.642596    
## GathRestrict1:StayAtHome1                                   0.055053 .  
## GathRestrict1:PublicMask1                                   0.008862 ** 
## GathRestrict1:Quarantine1                                   5.57e-05 ***
## GathRestrict1:NEBusinessClose1                              0.044403 *  
## GathRestrict1:TravelRestrictIntra1                          0.001630 ** 
## GathRestrict1:GathRecom1                                    0.817273    
## GathRestrict1:TravelRestrictExit1                                 NA    
## GathRestrict1:TravelRestrictEntry1                                NA    
## GathRestrict1:total.num.policy                                    NA    
## GathRestrict1:num.policy.7avg                               0.265395    
## GathRestrict1:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                  0.501109    
## GathRestrict1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                     8.56e-15 ***
## GathRestrict1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                0.000205 ***
## GathRestrict1:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                    2.37e-10 ***
## GathRestrict1:smoothed_cli                                  0.183786    
## GathRestrict1:smoothed_adj_cli                              0.221399    
## BarRestrict1:OtherBusinessClose1                            1.27e-07 ***
## BarRestrict1:RestaurantRestrict1                            0.857633    
## BarRestrict1:CaseIsolation1                                 0.083378 .  
## BarRestrict1:StayAtHome1                                    0.657543    
## BarRestrict1:PublicMask1                                    0.033315 *  
## BarRestrict1:Quarantine1                                    0.088582 .  
## BarRestrict1:NEBusinessClose1                                     NA    
## BarRestrict1:TravelRestrictIntra1                           1.47e-06 ***
## BarRestrict1:GathRecom1                                     0.779755    
## BarRestrict1:TravelRestrictExit1                                  NA    
## BarRestrict1:TravelRestrictEntry1                                 NA    
## BarRestrict1:total.num.policy                                     NA    
## BarRestrict1:num.policy.7avg                                0.403314    
## BarRestrict1:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                   0.022354 *  
## BarRestrict1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                      0.002104 ** 
## BarRestrict1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                 0.030441 *  
## BarRestrict1:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                     0.229756    
## BarRestrict1:smoothed_cli                                   0.668527    
## BarRestrict1:smoothed_adj_cli                               0.326437    
## OtherBusinessClose1:RestaurantRestrict1                           NA    
## OtherBusinessClose1:CaseIsolation1                          0.258883    
## OtherBusinessClose1:StayAtHome1                             0.672588    
## OtherBusinessClose1:PublicMask1                             0.272081    
## OtherBusinessClose1:Quarantine1                             0.000249 ***
## OtherBusinessClose1:NEBusinessClose1                        0.198820    
## OtherBusinessClose1:TravelRestrictIntra1                          NA    
## OtherBusinessClose1:GathRecom1                              0.944219    
## OtherBusinessClose1:TravelRestrictExit1                           NA    
## OtherBusinessClose1:TravelRestrictEntry1                          NA    
## OtherBusinessClose1:total.num.policy                              NA    
## OtherBusinessClose1:num.policy.7avg                         0.093407 .  
## OtherBusinessClose1:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num            0.371364    
## OtherBusinessClose1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative               6.14e-05 ***
## OtherBusinessClose1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop          9.82e-07 ***
## OtherBusinessClose1:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num              0.001001 ** 
## OtherBusinessClose1:smoothed_cli                            0.003871 ** 
## OtherBusinessClose1:smoothed_adj_cli                        0.002393 ** 
## RestaurantRestrict1:CaseIsolation1                          0.083346 .  
## RestaurantRestrict1:StayAtHome1                             0.586481    
## RestaurantRestrict1:PublicMask1                                   NA    
## RestaurantRestrict1:Quarantine1                             0.962688    
## RestaurantRestrict1:NEBusinessClose1                              NA    
## RestaurantRestrict1:TravelRestrictIntra1                          NA    
## RestaurantRestrict1:GathRecom1                                    NA    
## RestaurantRestrict1:TravelRestrictExit1                           NA    
## RestaurantRestrict1:TravelRestrictEntry1                          NA    
## RestaurantRestrict1:total.num.policy                              NA    
## RestaurantRestrict1:num.policy.7avg                         0.016891 *  
## RestaurantRestrict1:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num            0.135715    
## RestaurantRestrict1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative               0.172747    
## RestaurantRestrict1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop          0.158012    
## RestaurantRestrict1:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num              0.939186    
## RestaurantRestrict1:smoothed_cli                            0.062134 .  
## RestaurantRestrict1:smoothed_adj_cli                        0.152951    
## CaseIsolation1:StayAtHome1                                  0.145399    
## CaseIsolation1:PublicMask1                                  0.909758    
## CaseIsolation1:Quarantine1                                  0.065887 .  
## CaseIsolation1:NEBusinessClose1                             0.004433 ** 
## CaseIsolation1:TravelRestrictIntra1                         6.44e-05 ***
## CaseIsolation1:GathRecom1                                   0.337505    
## CaseIsolation1:TravelRestrictExit1                                NA    
## CaseIsolation1:TravelRestrictEntry1                               NA    
## CaseIsolation1:total.num.policy                                   NA    
## CaseIsolation1:num.policy.7avg                              0.381584    
## CaseIsolation1:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                 0.381837    
## CaseIsolation1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                    0.007311 ** 
## CaseIsolation1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop               0.791842    
## CaseIsolation1:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                   0.000398 ***
## CaseIsolation1:smoothed_cli                                 0.754964    
## CaseIsolation1:smoothed_adj_cli                             0.406383    
## StayAtHome1:PublicMask1                                     0.521836    
## StayAtHome1:Quarantine1                                     0.554556    
## StayAtHome1:NEBusinessClose1                                5.05e-06 ***
## StayAtHome1:TravelRestrictIntra1                            0.239024    
## StayAtHome1:GathRecom1                                      0.122082    
## StayAtHome1:TravelRestrictExit1                                   NA    
## StayAtHome1:TravelRestrictEntry1                                  NA    
## StayAtHome1:total.num.policy                                      NA    
## StayAtHome1:num.policy.7avg                                 0.070290 .  
## StayAtHome1:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                    0.455126    
## StayAtHome1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                       8.89e-10 ***
## StayAtHome1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                  0.017704 *  
## StayAtHome1:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                      4.99e-06 ***
## StayAtHome1:smoothed_cli                                    0.652125    
## StayAtHome1:smoothed_adj_cli                                0.738177    
## PublicMask1:Quarantine1                                     0.011326 *  
## PublicMask1:NEBusinessClose1                                0.096958 .  
## PublicMask1:TravelRestrictIntra1                            0.032891 *  
## PublicMask1:GathRecom1                                      0.129685    
## PublicMask1:TravelRestrictExit1                             0.621958    
## PublicMask1:TravelRestrictEntry1                            0.000846 ***
## PublicMask1:total.num.policy                                      NA    
## PublicMask1:num.policy.7avg                                 0.724965    
## PublicMask1:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                    0.980193    
## PublicMask1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                       0.097053 .  
## PublicMask1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                  0.220204    
## PublicMask1:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                      0.189020    
## PublicMask1:smoothed_cli                                    0.000527 ***
## PublicMask1:smoothed_adj_cli                                7.61e-05 ***
## Quarantine1:NEBusinessClose1                                2.14e-09 ***
## Quarantine1:TravelRestrictIntra1                                  NA    
## Quarantine1:GathRecom1                                      0.974807    
## Quarantine1:TravelRestrictExit1                                   NA    
## Quarantine1:TravelRestrictEntry1                            0.644338    
## Quarantine1:total.num.policy                                      NA    
## Quarantine1:num.policy.7avg                                 0.038523 *  
## Quarantine1:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                    0.973569    
## Quarantine1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                       2.67e-07 ***
## Quarantine1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                  0.009168 ** 
## Quarantine1:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                      7.43e-05 ***
## Quarantine1:smoothed_cli                                    0.274613    
## Quarantine1:smoothed_adj_cli                                0.194946    
## NEBusinessClose1:TravelRestrictIntra1                             NA    
## NEBusinessClose1:GathRecom1                                 0.026149 *  
## NEBusinessClose1:TravelRestrictExit1                              NA    
## NEBusinessClose1:TravelRestrictEntry1                             NA    
## NEBusinessClose1:total.num.policy                                 NA    
## NEBusinessClose1:num.policy.7avg                            0.016072 *  
## NEBusinessClose1:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num               0.105443    
## NEBusinessClose1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                  0.005544 ** 
## NEBusinessClose1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop             0.285671    
## NEBusinessClose1:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                 0.035768 *  
## NEBusinessClose1:smoothed_cli                               0.047070 *  
## NEBusinessClose1:smoothed_adj_cli                           0.070450 .  
## TravelRestrictIntra1:GathRecom1                             5.05e-10 ***
## TravelRestrictIntra1:TravelRestrictExit1                          NA    
## TravelRestrictIntra1:TravelRestrictEntry1                         NA    
## TravelRestrictIntra1:total.num.policy                             NA    
## TravelRestrictIntra1:num.policy.7avg                        0.031096 *  
## TravelRestrictIntra1:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num           0.294999    
## TravelRestrictIntra1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative              0.843439    
## TravelRestrictIntra1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop         0.994628    
## TravelRestrictIntra1:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num             0.841023    
## TravelRestrictIntra1:smoothed_cli                           0.239113    
## TravelRestrictIntra1:smoothed_adj_cli                       0.117795    
## GathRecom1:TravelRestrictExit1                                    NA    
## GathRecom1:TravelRestrictEntry1                                   NA    
## GathRecom1:total.num.policy                                       NA    
## GathRecom1:num.policy.7avg                                  0.767281    
## GathRecom1:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                     0.368604    
## GathRecom1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                        0.015375 *  
## GathRecom1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                   0.695477    
## GathRecom1:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                       0.001011 ** 
## GathRecom1:smoothed_cli                                     0.681754    
## GathRecom1:smoothed_adj_cli                                 0.328865    
## TravelRestrictExit1:TravelRestrictEntry1                    0.778438    
## TravelRestrictExit1:total.num.policy                              NA    
## TravelRestrictExit1:num.policy.7avg                         0.811366    
## TravelRestrictExit1:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num            0.117247    
## TravelRestrictExit1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative               0.408676    
## TravelRestrictExit1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                NA    
## TravelRestrictExit1:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num              0.515239    
## TravelRestrictExit1:smoothed_cli                            0.126838    
## TravelRestrictExit1:smoothed_adj_cli                        0.320151    
## TravelRestrictEntry1:total.num.policy                             NA    
## TravelRestrictEntry1:num.policy.7avg                        0.131355    
## TravelRestrictEntry1:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num           0.283848    
## TravelRestrictEntry1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative              0.522602    
## TravelRestrictEntry1:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop         0.435908    
## TravelRestrictEntry1:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num             0.648101    
## TravelRestrictEntry1:smoothed_cli                           2.52e-09 ***
## TravelRestrictEntry1:smoothed_adj_cli                       9.06e-07 ***
## total.num.policy:num.policy.7avg                                  NA    
## total.num.policy:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                     NA    
## total.num.policy:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                        NA    
## total.num.policy:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                   NA    
## total.num.policy:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                       NA    
## total.num.policy:smoothed_cli                                     NA    
## total.num.policy:smoothed_adj_cli                                 NA    
## num.policy.7avg:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                0.421664    
## num.policy.7avg:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                   0.727679    
## num.policy.7avg:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop              0.643949    
## num.policy.7avg:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                  0.547560    
## num.policy.7avg:smoothed_cli                                0.610319    
## num.policy.7avg:smoothed_adj_cli                            0.644489    
## confirmed_7dav_incidence_num:confirmed_7dav_cumulative       < 2e-16 ***
## confirmed_7dav_incidence_num:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop 3.40e-12 ***
## confirmed_7dav_incidence_num:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num     0.005932 ** 
## confirmed_7dav_incidence_num:smoothed_cli                   8.22e-10 ***
## confirmed_7dav_incidence_num:smoothed_adj_cli               1.61e-13 ***
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop     < 2e-16 ***
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num        0.011401 *  
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative:smoothed_cli                      9.77e-08 ***
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative:smoothed_adj_cli                  8.24e-12 ***
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num   7.48e-12 ***
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop:smoothed_cli                 0.085533 .  
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop:smoothed_adj_cli             0.013307 *  
## deaths_7dav_cumulative_num:smoothed_cli                     6.01e-07 ***
## deaths_7dav_cumulative_num:smoothed_adj_cli                 9.00e-12 ***
## smoothed_cli:smoothed_adj_cli                               1.45e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 0.009288 on 9643 degrees of freedom
##   (1683 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.4844, Adjusted R-squared:  0.4737 
## F-statistic: 45.52 on 199 and 9643 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16
plot(lm.fit.2)
## Warning: not plotting observations with leverage one:
##   532, 2211

## Warning: not plotting observations with leverage one:
##   532, 2211

par(mfrow=c(1,1))

ANOVA

Interpret the result

anova(lm.fit.1)
## Analysis of Variance Table
## 
## Response: full_time_work_prop
##                                  Df  Sum Sq  Mean Sq   F value    Pr(>F)    
## confirmed_7dav_incidence_num      1 0.00453 0.004532   41.2971 1.368e-10 ***
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative         1 0.03217 0.032172  293.1597 < 2.2e-16 ***
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop    1 0.14921 0.149215 1359.6728 < 2.2e-16 ***
## PublicMask                        1 0.00505 0.005047   45.9886 1.258e-11 ***
## StayAtHome                        1 0.00094 0.000940    8.5631  0.003438 ** 
## SchoolClose                       1 0.04153 0.041530  378.4304 < 2.2e-16 ***
## BarRestrict                       1 0.00825 0.008247   75.1441 < 2.2e-16 ***
## RestaurantRestrict                1 0.00070 0.000700    6.3745  0.011593 *  
## Quarantine                        1 0.00264 0.002638   24.0353 9.610e-07 ***
## NEBusinessClose                   1 0.00001 0.000011    0.0995  0.752415    
## TravelRestrictIntra               1 0.00014 0.000138    1.2583  0.262006    
## TravelRestrictExit                1 0.00081 0.000813    7.4049  0.006516 ** 
## TravelRestrictEntry               1 0.00000 0.000002    0.0178  0.893903    
## GathRecom                         1 0.00002 0.000015    0.1385  0.709795    
## total.num.policy                  1 0.00001 0.000013    0.1170  0.732341    
## num.policy.7avg                   1 0.00033 0.000332    3.0286  0.081838 .  
## deaths_7dav_cumulative_num        1 0.01015 0.010152   92.5039 < 2.2e-16 ***
## smoothed_cli                      1 0.06055 0.060555  551.7884 < 2.2e-16 ***
## smoothed_adj_cli                  1 0.21474 0.214736 1956.7134 < 2.2e-16 ***
## CaseIsolation                     1 0.00354 0.003538   32.2352 1.405e-08 ***
## Residuals                      9822 1.07790 0.000110                        
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
anova(lm.fit.2)
## Analysis of Variance Table
## 
## Response: full_time_work_prop
##                                                               Df  Sum Sq
## SchoolClose                                                    1 0.14053
## GathRestrict                                                   1 0.00000
## BarRestrict                                                    1 0.00304
## OtherBusinessClose                                             1 0.00959
## RestaurantRestrict                                             1 0.00005
## CaseIsolation                                                  1 0.00466
## StayAtHome                                                     1 0.00024
## PublicMask                                                     1 0.01894
## Quarantine                                                     1 0.00527
## NEBusinessClose                                                1 0.00114
## TravelRestrictIntra                                            1 0.00298
## GathRecom                                                      1 0.00011
## TravelRestrictExit                                             1 0.00179
## TravelRestrictEntry                                            1 0.00110
## num.policy.7avg                                                1 0.00034
## confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                                   1 0.00014
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative                                      1 0.00690
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                                 1 0.05592
## deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                                     1 0.01104
## smoothed_cli                                                   1 0.05799
## smoothed_adj_cli                                               1 0.21515
## SchoolClose:GathRestrict                                       1 0.00104
## SchoolClose:BarRestrict                                        1 0.00038
## SchoolClose:OtherBusinessClose                                 1 0.00049
## SchoolClose:RestaurantRestrict                                 1 0.00058
## SchoolClose:CaseIsolation                                      1 0.00080
## SchoolClose:StayAtHome                                         1 0.00129
## SchoolClose:PublicMask                                         1 0.00033
## SchoolClose:Quarantine                                         1 0.00000
## SchoolClose:NEBusinessClose                                    1 0.00388
## SchoolClose:TravelRestrictIntra                                1 0.00426
## SchoolClose:GathRecom                                          1 0.00001
## SchoolClose:TravelRestrictEntry                                1 0.00008
## SchoolClose:num.policy.7avg                                    1 0.00010
## SchoolClose:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                       1 0.00452
## SchoolClose:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                          1 0.00248
## SchoolClose:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                     1 0.00562
## SchoolClose:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                         1 0.00200
## SchoolClose:smoothed_cli                                       1 0.00072
## SchoolClose:smoothed_adj_cli                                   1 0.01520
## GathRestrict:BarRestrict                                       1 0.00449
## GathRestrict:CaseIsolation                                     1 0.00392
## GathRestrict:StayAtHome                                        1 0.00861
## GathRestrict:PublicMask                                        1 0.00100
## GathRestrict:Quarantine                                        1 0.00453
## GathRestrict:NEBusinessClose                                   1 0.00087
## GathRestrict:TravelRestrictIntra                               1 0.00004
## GathRestrict:GathRecom                                         1 0.00001
## GathRestrict:num.policy.7avg                                   1 0.00001
## GathRestrict:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                      1 0.00107
## GathRestrict:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                         1 0.00034
## GathRestrict:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                    1 0.00440
## GathRestrict:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                        1 0.00389
## GathRestrict:smoothed_cli                                      1 0.00116
## GathRestrict:smoothed_adj_cli                                  1 0.00013
## BarRestrict:OtherBusinessClose                                 1 0.00154
## BarRestrict:RestaurantRestrict                                 1 0.00002
## BarRestrict:CaseIsolation                                      1 0.00001
## BarRestrict:StayAtHome                                         1 0.00094
## BarRestrict:PublicMask                                         1 0.00163
## BarRestrict:Quarantine                                         1 0.00000
## BarRestrict:TravelRestrictIntra                                1 0.00208
## BarRestrict:GathRecom                                          1 0.00008
## BarRestrict:num.policy.7avg                                    1 0.00000
## BarRestrict:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                       1 0.00402
## BarRestrict:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                          1 0.00319
## BarRestrict:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                     1 0.00157
## BarRestrict:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                         1 0.00056
## BarRestrict:smoothed_cli                                       1 0.00504
## BarRestrict:smoothed_adj_cli                                   1 0.00138
## OtherBusinessClose:CaseIsolation                               1 0.00299
## OtherBusinessClose:StayAtHome                                  1 0.00392
## OtherBusinessClose:PublicMask                                  1 0.00031
## OtherBusinessClose:Quarantine                                  1 0.00826
## OtherBusinessClose:NEBusinessClose                             1 0.00667
## OtherBusinessClose:GathRecom                                   1 0.00113
## OtherBusinessClose:num.policy.7avg                             1 0.00019
## OtherBusinessClose:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                1 0.00004
## OtherBusinessClose:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                   1 0.00006
## OtherBusinessClose:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop              1 0.00609
## OtherBusinessClose:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                  1 0.00078
## OtherBusinessClose:smoothed_cli                                1 0.00007
## OtherBusinessClose:smoothed_adj_cli                            1 0.00460
## RestaurantRestrict:CaseIsolation                               1 0.00002
## RestaurantRestrict:StayAtHome                                  1 0.00004
## RestaurantRestrict:Quarantine                                  1 0.00012
## RestaurantRestrict:num.policy.7avg                             1 0.00041
## RestaurantRestrict:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                1 0.00037
## RestaurantRestrict:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                   1 0.00021
## RestaurantRestrict:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop              1 0.00068
## RestaurantRestrict:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                  1 0.00000
## RestaurantRestrict:smoothed_cli                                1 0.00037
## RestaurantRestrict:smoothed_adj_cli                            1 0.00005
## CaseIsolation:StayAtHome                                       1 0.00066
## CaseIsolation:PublicMask                                       1 0.00061
## CaseIsolation:Quarantine                                       1 0.00000
## CaseIsolation:NEBusinessClose                                  1 0.00914
## CaseIsolation:TravelRestrictIntra                              1 0.00065
## CaseIsolation:GathRecom                                        1 0.00146
## CaseIsolation:num.policy.7avg                                  1 0.00017
## CaseIsolation:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                     1 0.00025
## CaseIsolation:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                        1 0.00015
## CaseIsolation:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                   1 0.00146
## CaseIsolation:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                       1 0.00145
## CaseIsolation:smoothed_cli                                     1 0.00007
## CaseIsolation:smoothed_adj_cli                                 1 0.00471
## StayAtHome:PublicMask                                          1 0.00264
## StayAtHome:Quarantine                                          1 0.00130
## StayAtHome:NEBusinessClose                                     1 0.00602
## StayAtHome:TravelRestrictIntra                                 1 0.00010
## StayAtHome:GathRecom                                           1 0.00036
## StayAtHome:num.policy.7avg                                     1 0.00013
## StayAtHome:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                        1 0.00080
## StayAtHome:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                           1 0.00012
## StayAtHome:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                      1 0.00012
## StayAtHome:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                          1 0.00268
## StayAtHome:smoothed_cli                                        1 0.00027
## StayAtHome:smoothed_adj_cli                                    1 0.00127
## PublicMask:Quarantine                                          1 0.00042
## PublicMask:NEBusinessClose                                     1 0.00003
## PublicMask:TravelRestrictIntra                                 1 0.00009
## PublicMask:GathRecom                                           1 0.00001
## PublicMask:TravelRestrictExit                                  1 0.00001
## PublicMask:TravelRestrictEntry                                 1 0.00092
## PublicMask:num.policy.7avg                                     1 0.00000
## PublicMask:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                        1 0.00031
## PublicMask:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                           1 0.00104
## PublicMask:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                      1 0.00046
## PublicMask:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                          1 0.00005
## PublicMask:smoothed_cli                                        1 0.00000
## PublicMask:smoothed_adj_cli                                    1 0.00400
## Quarantine:NEBusinessClose                                     1 0.00312
## Quarantine:GathRecom                                           1 0.00494
## Quarantine:TravelRestrictEntry                                 1 0.00000
## Quarantine:num.policy.7avg                                     1 0.00007
## Quarantine:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                        1 0.00005
## Quarantine:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                           1 0.00008
## Quarantine:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                      1 0.00307
## Quarantine:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                          1 0.00368
## Quarantine:smoothed_cli                                        1 0.00035
## Quarantine:smoothed_adj_cli                                    1 0.00018
## NEBusinessClose:GathRecom                                      1 0.00001
## NEBusinessClose:num.policy.7avg                                1 0.00032
## NEBusinessClose:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                   1 0.00001
## NEBusinessClose:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                      1 0.00001
## NEBusinessClose:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                 1 0.00188
## NEBusinessClose:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                     1 0.00012
## NEBusinessClose:smoothed_cli                                   1 0.00076
## NEBusinessClose:smoothed_adj_cli                               1 0.00272
## TravelRestrictIntra:GathRecom                                  1 0.00494
## TravelRestrictIntra:num.policy.7avg                            1 0.00037
## TravelRestrictIntra:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num               1 0.00006
## TravelRestrictIntra:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                  1 0.00003
## TravelRestrictIntra:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop             1 0.00004
## TravelRestrictIntra:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                 1 0.00000
## TravelRestrictIntra:smoothed_cli                               1 0.00066
## TravelRestrictIntra:smoothed_adj_cli                           1 0.00023
## GathRecom:num.policy.7avg                                      1 0.00002
## GathRecom:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                         1 0.00004
## GathRecom:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                            1 0.00349
## GathRecom:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                       1 0.00010
## GathRecom:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                           1 0.00126
## GathRecom:smoothed_cli                                         1 0.00156
## GathRecom:smoothed_adj_cli                                     1 0.00008
## TravelRestrictExit:TravelRestrictEntry                         1 0.00011
## TravelRestrictExit:num.policy.7avg                             1 0.00000
## TravelRestrictExit:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                1 0.00021
## TravelRestrictExit:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                   1 0.00008
## TravelRestrictExit:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                  1 0.00002
## TravelRestrictExit:smoothed_cli                                1 0.00021
## TravelRestrictExit:smoothed_adj_cli                            1 0.00009
## TravelRestrictEntry:num.policy.7avg                            1 0.00015
## TravelRestrictEntry:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num               1 0.00006
## TravelRestrictEntry:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                  1 0.00086
## TravelRestrictEntry:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop             1 0.00059
## TravelRestrictEntry:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                 1 0.00001
## TravelRestrictEntry:smoothed_cli                               1 0.00184
## TravelRestrictEntry:smoothed_adj_cli                           1 0.00289
## num.policy.7avg:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                   1 0.00033
## num.policy.7avg:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                      1 0.00000
## num.policy.7avg:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                 1 0.00006
## num.policy.7avg:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                     1 0.00010
## num.policy.7avg:smoothed_cli                                   1 0.00000
## num.policy.7avg:smoothed_adj_cli                               1 0.00001
## confirmed_7dav_incidence_num:confirmed_7dav_cumulative         1 0.00207
## confirmed_7dav_incidence_num:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop    1 0.00076
## confirmed_7dav_incidence_num:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num        1 0.00001
## confirmed_7dav_incidence_num:smoothed_cli                      1 0.00005
## confirmed_7dav_incidence_num:smoothed_adj_cli                  1 0.00181
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop       1 0.00223
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num           1 0.00080
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative:smoothed_cli                         1 0.00006
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative:smoothed_adj_cli                     1 0.00141
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num      1 0.00444
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop:smoothed_cli                    1 0.00202
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop:smoothed_adj_cli                1 0.00009
## deaths_7dav_cumulative_num:smoothed_cli                        1 0.00014
## deaths_7dav_cumulative_num:smoothed_adj_cli                    1 0.00344
## smoothed_cli:smoothed_adj_cli                                  1 0.00162
## Residuals                                                   9643 0.83184
##                                                              Mean Sq   F value
## SchoolClose                                                 0.140528 1629.0657
## GathRestrict                                                0.000000    0.0040
## BarRestrict                                                 0.003037   35.2053
## OtherBusinessClose                                          0.009587  111.1320
## RestaurantRestrict                                          0.000048    0.5555
## CaseIsolation                                               0.004658   53.9971
## StayAtHome                                                  0.000236    2.7338
## PublicMask                                                  0.018941  219.5728
## Quarantine                                                  0.005273   61.1234
## NEBusinessClose                                             0.001137   13.1777
## TravelRestrictIntra                                         0.002975   34.4924
## GathRecom                                                   0.000108    1.2519
## TravelRestrictExit                                          0.001794   20.7934
## TravelRestrictEntry                                         0.001102   12.7710
## num.policy.7avg                                             0.000344    3.9847
## confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                                0.000139    1.6117
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative                                   0.006901   79.9991
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                              0.055918  648.2254
## deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                                  0.011043  128.0110
## smoothed_cli                                                0.057985  672.1906
## smoothed_adj_cli                                            0.215152 2494.1318
## SchoolClose:GathRestrict                                    0.001036   12.0123
## SchoolClose:BarRestrict                                     0.000376    4.3578
## SchoolClose:OtherBusinessClose                              0.000486    5.6347
## SchoolClose:RestaurantRestrict                              0.000582    6.7521
## SchoolClose:CaseIsolation                                   0.000805    9.3282
## SchoolClose:StayAtHome                                      0.001291   14.9639
## SchoolClose:PublicMask                                      0.000329    3.8102
## SchoolClose:Quarantine                                      0.000003    0.0320
## SchoolClose:NEBusinessClose                                 0.003876   44.9376
## SchoolClose:TravelRestrictIntra                             0.004259   49.3722
## SchoolClose:GathRecom                                       0.000009    0.1099
## SchoolClose:TravelRestrictEntry                             0.000084    0.9762
## SchoolClose:num.policy.7avg                                 0.000099    1.1489
## SchoolClose:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                    0.004518   52.3731
## SchoolClose:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                       0.002485   28.8050
## SchoolClose:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                  0.005622   65.1752
## SchoolClose:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                      0.001999   23.1754
## SchoolClose:smoothed_cli                                    0.000722    8.3724
## SchoolClose:smoothed_adj_cli                                0.015197  176.1684
## GathRestrict:BarRestrict                                    0.004487   52.0205
## GathRestrict:CaseIsolation                                  0.003921   45.4513
## GathRestrict:StayAtHome                                     0.008615   99.8685
## GathRestrict:PublicMask                                     0.001002   11.6206
## GathRestrict:Quarantine                                     0.004526   52.4709
## GathRestrict:NEBusinessClose                                0.000873   10.1148
## GathRestrict:TravelRestrictIntra                            0.000042    0.4848
## GathRestrict:GathRecom                                      0.000012    0.1427
## GathRestrict:num.policy.7avg                                0.000009    0.1047
## GathRestrict:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                   0.001067   12.3664
## GathRestrict:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                      0.000337    3.9095
## GathRestrict:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                 0.004397   50.9726
## GathRestrict:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                     0.003894   45.1439
## GathRestrict:smoothed_cli                                   0.001161   13.4537
## GathRestrict:smoothed_adj_cli                               0.000132    1.5308
## BarRestrict:OtherBusinessClose                              0.001541   17.8668
## BarRestrict:RestaurantRestrict                              0.000018    0.2054
## BarRestrict:CaseIsolation                                   0.000011    0.1275
## BarRestrict:StayAtHome                                      0.000944   10.9396
## BarRestrict:PublicMask                                      0.001634   18.9461
## BarRestrict:Quarantine                                      0.000004    0.0468
## BarRestrict:TravelRestrictIntra                             0.002080   24.1069
## BarRestrict:GathRecom                                       0.000084    0.9785
## BarRestrict:num.policy.7avg                                 0.000001    0.0097
## BarRestrict:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                    0.004019   46.5911
## BarRestrict:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                       0.003193   37.0155
## BarRestrict:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                  0.001567   18.1704
## BarRestrict:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                      0.000556    6.4496
## BarRestrict:smoothed_cli                                    0.005040   58.4306
## BarRestrict:smoothed_adj_cli                                0.001376   15.9565
## OtherBusinessClose:CaseIsolation                            0.002987   34.6242
## OtherBusinessClose:StayAtHome                               0.003923   45.4773
## OtherBusinessClose:PublicMask                               0.000312    3.6172
## OtherBusinessClose:Quarantine                               0.008260   95.7521
## OtherBusinessClose:NEBusinessClose                          0.006669   77.3125
## OtherBusinessClose:GathRecom                                0.001134   13.1437
## OtherBusinessClose:num.policy.7avg                          0.000193    2.2399
## OtherBusinessClose:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num             0.000044    0.5048
## OtherBusinessClose:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                0.000056    0.6485
## OtherBusinessClose:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop           0.006093   70.6307
## OtherBusinessClose:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num               0.000777    9.0054
## OtherBusinessClose:smoothed_cli                             0.000069    0.7957
## OtherBusinessClose:smoothed_adj_cli                         0.004601   53.3344
## RestaurantRestrict:CaseIsolation                            0.000015    0.1741
## RestaurantRestrict:StayAtHome                               0.000043    0.5009
## RestaurantRestrict:Quarantine                               0.000117    1.3536
## RestaurantRestrict:num.policy.7avg                          0.000412    4.7794
## RestaurantRestrict:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num             0.000372    4.3137
## RestaurantRestrict:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                0.000213    2.4661
## RestaurantRestrict:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop           0.000678    7.8632
## RestaurantRestrict:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num               0.000002    0.0270
## RestaurantRestrict:smoothed_cli                             0.000368    4.2669
## RestaurantRestrict:smoothed_adj_cli                         0.000051    0.5928
## CaseIsolation:StayAtHome                                    0.000662    7.6763
## CaseIsolation:PublicMask                                    0.000606    7.0255
## CaseIsolation:Quarantine                                    0.000001    0.0117
## CaseIsolation:NEBusinessClose                               0.009144  105.9988
## CaseIsolation:TravelRestrictIntra                           0.000653    7.5680
## CaseIsolation:GathRecom                                     0.001458   16.9051
## CaseIsolation:num.policy.7avg                               0.000167    1.9304
## CaseIsolation:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                  0.000248    2.8800
## CaseIsolation:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                     0.000147    1.7021
## CaseIsolation:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                0.001459   16.9116
## CaseIsolation:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                    0.001446   16.7614
## CaseIsolation:smoothed_cli                                  0.000066    0.7630
## CaseIsolation:smoothed_adj_cli                              0.004714   54.6516
## StayAtHome:PublicMask                                       0.002641   30.6111
## StayAtHome:Quarantine                                       0.001305   15.1260
## StayAtHome:NEBusinessClose                                  0.006025   69.8395
## StayAtHome:TravelRestrictIntra                              0.000103    1.1994
## StayAtHome:GathRecom                                        0.000356    4.1315
## StayAtHome:num.policy.7avg                                  0.000130    1.5046
## StayAtHome:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                     0.000801    9.2865
## StayAtHome:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                        0.000119    1.3774
## StayAtHome:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                   0.000118    1.3702
## StayAtHome:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                       0.002680   31.0715
## StayAtHome:smoothed_cli                                     0.000269    3.1139
## StayAtHome:smoothed_adj_cli                                 0.001269   14.7146
## PublicMask:Quarantine                                       0.000420    4.8684
## PublicMask:NEBusinessClose                                  0.000025    0.2922
## PublicMask:TravelRestrictIntra                              0.000088    1.0178
## PublicMask:GathRecom                                        0.000007    0.0827
## PublicMask:TravelRestrictExit                               0.000010    0.1134
## PublicMask:TravelRestrictEntry                              0.000919   10.6583
## PublicMask:num.policy.7avg                                  0.000002    0.0213
## PublicMask:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                     0.000314    3.6395
## PublicMask:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                        0.001044   12.1078
## PublicMask:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                   0.000461    5.3420
## PublicMask:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                       0.000049    0.5644
## PublicMask:smoothed_cli                                     0.000002    0.0182
## PublicMask:smoothed_adj_cli                                 0.004004   46.4197
## Quarantine:NEBusinessClose                                  0.003117   36.1295
## Quarantine:GathRecom                                        0.004944   57.3103
## Quarantine:TravelRestrictEntry                              0.000004    0.0493
## Quarantine:num.policy.7avg                                  0.000071    0.8209
## Quarantine:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                     0.000053    0.6150
## Quarantine:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                        0.000076    0.8777
## Quarantine:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                   0.003066   35.5386
## Quarantine:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                       0.003683   42.6996
## Quarantine:smoothed_cli                                     0.000350    4.0529
## Quarantine:smoothed_adj_cli                                 0.000185    2.1438
## NEBusinessClose:GathRecom                                   0.000008    0.0885
## NEBusinessClose:num.policy.7avg                             0.000319    3.7012
## NEBusinessClose:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                0.000005    0.0609
## NEBusinessClose:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                   0.000009    0.1017
## NEBusinessClose:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop              0.001881   21.8027
## NEBusinessClose:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                  0.000123    1.4278
## NEBusinessClose:smoothed_cli                                0.000762    8.8376
## NEBusinessClose:smoothed_adj_cli                            0.002724   31.5825
## TravelRestrictIntra:GathRecom                               0.004936   57.2213
## TravelRestrictIntra:num.policy.7avg                         0.000366    4.2438
## TravelRestrictIntra:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num            0.000057    0.6639
## TravelRestrictIntra:confirmed_7dav_cumulative               0.000025    0.2914
## TravelRestrictIntra:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop          0.000045    0.5211
## TravelRestrictIntra:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num              0.000001    0.0070
## TravelRestrictIntra:smoothed_cli                            0.000665    7.7043
## TravelRestrictIntra:smoothed_adj_cli                        0.000225    2.6099
## GathRecom:num.policy.7avg                                   0.000017    0.1998
## GathRecom:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                      0.000045    0.5206
## GathRecom:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                         0.003494   40.5003
## GathRecom:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                    0.000100    1.1613
## GathRecom:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                        0.001256   14.5560
## GathRecom:smoothed_cli                                      0.001562   18.1018
## GathRecom:smoothed_adj_cli                                  0.000082    0.9480
## TravelRestrictExit:TravelRestrictEntry                      0.000113    1.3073
## TravelRestrictExit:num.policy.7avg                          0.000000    0.0004
## TravelRestrictExit:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num             0.000210    2.4387
## TravelRestrictExit:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                0.000075    0.8725
## TravelRestrictExit:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num               0.000017    0.1997
## TravelRestrictExit:smoothed_cli                             0.000207    2.4015
## TravelRestrictExit:smoothed_adj_cli                         0.000089    1.0303
## TravelRestrictEntry:num.policy.7avg                         0.000152    1.7613
## TravelRestrictEntry:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num            0.000057    0.6584
## TravelRestrictEntry:confirmed_7dav_cumulative               0.000856    9.9251
## TravelRestrictEntry:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop          0.000594    6.8827
## TravelRestrictEntry:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num              0.000009    0.1063
## TravelRestrictEntry:smoothed_cli                            0.001841   21.3445
## TravelRestrictEntry:smoothed_adj_cli                        0.002887   33.4705
## num.policy.7avg:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                0.000329    3.8163
## num.policy.7avg:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                   0.000004    0.0410
## num.policy.7avg:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop              0.000058    0.6718
## num.policy.7avg:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                  0.000097    1.1210
## num.policy.7avg:smoothed_cli                                0.000005    0.0524
## num.policy.7avg:smoothed_adj_cli                            0.000007    0.0813
## confirmed_7dav_incidence_num:confirmed_7dav_cumulative      0.002067   23.9670
## confirmed_7dav_incidence_num:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop 0.000764    8.8611
## confirmed_7dav_incidence_num:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num     0.000008    0.0970
## confirmed_7dav_incidence_num:smoothed_cli                   0.000048    0.5621
## confirmed_7dav_incidence_num:smoothed_adj_cli               0.001813   21.0121
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop    0.002228   25.8293
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num        0.000801    9.2838
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative:smoothed_cli                      0.000063    0.7349
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative:smoothed_adj_cli                  0.001413   16.3808
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num   0.004439   51.4573
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop:smoothed_cli                 0.002022   23.4421
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop:smoothed_adj_cli             0.000091    1.0529
## deaths_7dav_cumulative_num:smoothed_cli                     0.000144    1.6728
## deaths_7dav_cumulative_num:smoothed_adj_cli                 0.003444   39.9297
## smoothed_cli:smoothed_adj_cli                               0.001624   18.8237
## Residuals                                                   0.000086          
##                                                                Pr(>F)    
## SchoolClose                                                 < 2.2e-16 ***
## GathRestrict                                                0.9494931    
## BarRestrict                                                 3.069e-09 ***
## OtherBusinessClose                                          < 2.2e-16 ***
## RestaurantRestrict                                          0.4560908    
## CaseIsolation                                               2.171e-13 ***
## StayAtHome                                                  0.0982792 .  
## PublicMask                                                  < 2.2e-16 ***
## Quarantine                                                  5.922e-15 ***
## NEBusinessClose                                             0.0002848 ***
## TravelRestrictIntra                                         4.421e-09 ***
## GathRecom                                                   0.2632125    
## TravelRestrictExit                                          5.179e-06 ***
## TravelRestrictEntry                                         0.0003538 ***
## num.policy.7avg                                             0.0459421 *  
## confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                                0.2042889    
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative                                   < 2.2e-16 ***
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                              < 2.2e-16 ***
## deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                                  < 2.2e-16 ***
## smoothed_cli                                                < 2.2e-16 ***
## smoothed_adj_cli                                            < 2.2e-16 ***
## SchoolClose:GathRestrict                                    0.0005308 ***
## SchoolClose:BarRestrict                                     0.0368667 *  
## SchoolClose:OtherBusinessClose                              0.0176282 *  
## SchoolClose:RestaurantRestrict                              0.0093781 ** 
## SchoolClose:CaseIsolation                                   0.0022627 ** 
## SchoolClose:StayAtHome                                      0.0001103 ***
## SchoolClose:PublicMask                                      0.0509708 .  
## SchoolClose:Quarantine                                      0.8579437    
## SchoolClose:NEBusinessClose                                 2.148e-11 ***
## SchoolClose:TravelRestrictIntra                             2.261e-12 ***
## SchoolClose:GathRecom                                       0.7402287    
## SchoolClose:TravelRestrictEntry                             0.3231726    
## SchoolClose:num.policy.7avg                                 0.2838117    
## SchoolClose:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                    4.940e-13 ***
## SchoolClose:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                       8.190e-08 ***
## SchoolClose:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                  7.672e-16 ***
## SchoolClose:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                      1.501e-06 ***
## SchoolClose:smoothed_cli                                    0.0038181 ** 
## SchoolClose:smoothed_adj_cli                                < 2.2e-16 ***
## GathRestrict:BarRestrict                                    5.906e-13 ***
## GathRestrict:CaseIsolation                                  1.654e-11 ***
## GathRestrict:StayAtHome                                     < 2.2e-16 ***
## GathRestrict:PublicMask                                     0.0006549 ***
## GathRestrict:Quarantine                                     4.701e-13 ***
## GathRestrict:NEBusinessClose                                0.0014755 ** 
## GathRestrict:TravelRestrictIntra                            0.4862799    
## GathRestrict:GathRecom                                      0.7056058    
## GathRestrict:num.policy.7avg                                0.7463004    
## GathRestrict:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                   0.0004391 ***
## GathRestrict:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                      0.0480413 *  
## GathRestrict:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                 1.004e-12 ***
## GathRestrict:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                     1.934e-11 ***
## GathRestrict:smoothed_cli                                   0.0002458 ***
## GathRestrict:smoothed_adj_cli                               0.2160160    
## BarRestrict:OtherBusinessClose                              2.391e-05 ***
## BarRestrict:RestaurantRestrict                              0.6504118    
## BarRestrict:CaseIsolation                                   0.7210836    
## BarRestrict:StayAtHome                                      0.0009447 ***
## BarRestrict:PublicMask                                      1.358e-05 ***
## BarRestrict:Quarantine                                      0.8287516    
## BarRestrict:TravelRestrictIntra                             9.263e-07 ***
## BarRestrict:GathRecom                                       0.3225942    
## BarRestrict:num.policy.7avg                                 0.9216691    
## BarRestrict:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                    9.273e-12 ***
## BarRestrict:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                       1.217e-09 ***
## BarRestrict:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                  2.039e-05 ***
## BarRestrict:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                      0.0111134 *  
## BarRestrict:smoothed_cli                                    2.307e-14 ***
## BarRestrict:smoothed_adj_cli                                6.530e-05 ***
## OtherBusinessClose:CaseIsolation                            4.132e-09 ***
## OtherBusinessClose:StayAtHome                               1.633e-11 ***
## OtherBusinessClose:PublicMask                               0.0572146 .  
## OtherBusinessClose:Quarantine                               < 2.2e-16 ***
## OtherBusinessClose:NEBusinessClose                          < 2.2e-16 ***
## OtherBusinessClose:GathRecom                                0.0002900 ***
## OtherBusinessClose:num.policy.7avg                          0.1345239    
## OtherBusinessClose:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num             0.4774348    
## OtherBusinessClose:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                0.4206744    
## OtherBusinessClose:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop           < 2.2e-16 ***
## OtherBusinessClose:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num               0.0026987 ** 
## OtherBusinessClose:smoothed_cli                             0.3724071    
## OtherBusinessClose:smoothed_adj_cli                         3.036e-13 ***
## RestaurantRestrict:CaseIsolation                            0.6764980    
## RestaurantRestrict:StayAtHome                               0.4791377    
## RestaurantRestrict:Quarantine                               0.2446786    
## RestaurantRestrict:num.policy.7avg                          0.0288269 *  
## RestaurantRestrict:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num             0.0378323 *  
## RestaurantRestrict:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                0.1163555    
## RestaurantRestrict:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop           0.0050553 ** 
## RestaurantRestrict:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num               0.8696005    
## RestaurantRestrict:smoothed_cli                             0.0388890 *  
## RestaurantRestrict:smoothed_adj_cli                         0.4413599    
## CaseIsolation:StayAtHome                                    0.0056057 ** 
## CaseIsolation:PublicMask                                    0.0080490 ** 
## CaseIsolation:Quarantine                                    0.9139603    
## CaseIsolation:NEBusinessClose                               < 2.2e-16 ***
## CaseIsolation:TravelRestrictIntra                           0.0059523 ** 
## CaseIsolation:GathRecom                                     3.962e-05 ***
## CaseIsolation:num.policy.7avg                               0.1647474    
## CaseIsolation:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                  0.0897207 .  
## CaseIsolation:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                     0.1920435    
## CaseIsolation:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                3.949e-05 ***
## CaseIsolation:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                    4.273e-05 ***
## CaseIsolation:smoothed_cli                                  0.3824035    
## CaseIsolation:smoothed_adj_cli                              1.559e-13 ***
## StayAtHome:PublicMask                                       3.235e-08 ***
## StayAtHome:Quarantine                                       0.0001012 ***
## StayAtHome:NEBusinessClose                                  < 2.2e-16 ***
## StayAtHome:TravelRestrictIntra                              0.2734715    
## StayAtHome:GathRecom                                        0.0421200 *  
## StayAtHome:num.policy.7avg                                  0.2199999    
## StayAtHome:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                     0.0023148 ** 
## StayAtHome:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                        0.2405707    
## StayAtHome:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                   0.2418090    
## StayAtHome:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                       2.554e-08 ***
## StayAtHome:smoothed_cli                                     0.0776569 .  
## StayAtHome:smoothed_adj_cli                                 0.0001259 ***
## PublicMask:Quarantine                                       0.0273767 *  
## PublicMask:NEBusinessClose                                  0.5887981    
## PublicMask:TravelRestrictIntra                              0.3130600    
## PublicMask:GathRecom                                        0.7737347    
## PublicMask:TravelRestrictExit                               0.7363305    
## PublicMask:TravelRestrictEntry                              0.0010996 ** 
## PublicMask:num.policy.7avg                                  0.8839877    
## PublicMask:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                     0.0564523 .  
## PublicMask:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                        0.0005043 ***
## PublicMask:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                   0.0208390 *  
## PublicMask:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                       0.4524926    
## PublicMask:smoothed_cli                                     0.8925776    
## PublicMask:smoothed_adj_cli                                 1.012e-11 ***
## Quarantine:NEBusinessClose                                  1.913e-09 ***
## Quarantine:GathRecom                                        4.063e-14 ***
## Quarantine:TravelRestrictEntry                              0.8242379    
## Quarantine:num.policy.7avg                                  0.3649273    
## Quarantine:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                     0.4329280    
## Quarantine:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                        0.3488601    
## Quarantine:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                   2.588e-09 ***
## Quarantine:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                       6.705e-11 ***
## Quarantine:smoothed_cli                                     0.0441223 *  
## Quarantine:smoothed_adj_cli                                 0.1431841    
## NEBusinessClose:GathRecom                                   0.7660808    
## NEBusinessClose:num.policy.7avg                             0.0544016 .  
## NEBusinessClose:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                0.8050911    
## NEBusinessClose:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                   0.7497702    
## NEBusinessClose:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop              3.062e-06 ***
## NEBusinessClose:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                  0.2321496    
## NEBusinessClose:smoothed_cli                                0.0029581 ** 
## NEBusinessClose:smoothed_adj_cli                            1.965e-08 ***
## TravelRestrictIntra:GathRecom                               4.250e-14 ***
## TravelRestrictIntra:num.policy.7avg                         0.0394204 *  
## TravelRestrictIntra:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num            0.4152018    
## TravelRestrictIntra:confirmed_7dav_cumulative               0.5893537    
## TravelRestrictIntra:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop          0.4703964    
## TravelRestrictIntra:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num              0.9333061    
## TravelRestrictIntra:smoothed_cli                            0.0055195 ** 
## TravelRestrictIntra:smoothed_adj_cli                        0.1062310    
## GathRecom:num.policy.7avg                                   0.6548597    
## GathRecom:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                      0.4705888    
## GathRecom:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                         2.055e-10 ***
## GathRecom:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop                    0.2812215    
## GathRecom:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                        0.0001369 ***
## GathRecom:smoothed_cli                                      2.114e-05 ***
## GathRecom:smoothed_adj_cli                                  0.3302495    
## TravelRestrictExit:TravelRestrictEntry                      0.2529137    
## TravelRestrictExit:num.policy.7avg                          0.9850096    
## TravelRestrictExit:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num             0.1184035    
## TravelRestrictExit:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                0.3502780    
## TravelRestrictExit:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num               0.6549802    
## TravelRestrictExit:smoothed_cli                             0.1212490    
## TravelRestrictExit:smoothed_adj_cli                         0.3101115    
## TravelRestrictEntry:num.policy.7avg                         0.1844974    
## TravelRestrictEntry:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num            0.4171616    
## TravelRestrictEntry:confirmed_7dav_cumulative               0.0016353 ** 
## TravelRestrictEntry:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop          0.0087173 ** 
## TravelRestrictEntry:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num              0.7444576    
## TravelRestrictEntry:smoothed_cli                            3.887e-06 ***
## TravelRestrictEntry:smoothed_adj_cli                        7.461e-09 ***
## num.policy.7avg:confirmed_7dav_incidence_num                0.0507848 .  
## num.policy.7avg:confirmed_7dav_cumulative                   0.8395085    
## num.policy.7avg:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop              0.4124453    
## num.policy.7avg:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num                  0.2897277    
## num.policy.7avg:smoothed_cli                                0.8188652    
## num.policy.7avg:smoothed_adj_cli                            0.7756104    
## confirmed_7dav_incidence_num:confirmed_7dav_cumulative      9.959e-07 ***
## confirmed_7dav_incidence_num:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop 0.0029203 ** 
## confirmed_7dav_incidence_num:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num     0.7554409    
## confirmed_7dav_incidence_num:smoothed_cli                   0.4534222    
## confirmed_7dav_incidence_num:smoothed_adj_cli               4.621e-06 ***
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative:confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop    3.800e-07 ***
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num        0.0023181 ** 
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative:smoothed_cli                      0.3913107    
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative:smoothed_adj_cli                  5.221e-05 ***
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop:deaths_7dav_cumulative_num   7.856e-13 ***
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop:smoothed_cli                 1.307e-06 ***
## confirmed_7dav_cumulative_prop:smoothed_adj_cli             0.3048700    
## deaths_7dav_cumulative_num:smoothed_cli                     0.1959203    
## deaths_7dav_cumulative_num:smoothed_adj_cli                 2.749e-10 ***
## smoothed_cli:smoothed_adj_cli                               1.448e-05 ***
## Residuals                                                                
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
# Change the default setting for unbalanced ANOVA
#options(contrasts = c("contr.sum", "contr.poly"))

# ANOVA test for unbalanced designs.

# print the ANOVA table for both models
#Anova(lm.fit.0, type = "III")

#Anova(lm.fit.1, singular.ok = T, type = "III") #set singular.ok = T to avoid error 

Model selection